All over the world, the effects of climate change are becoming more and more apparent. In Sweden, both rising temperatures and higher levels of precipitation are noticeable. Hydropower, which is not only the largest renewable energy source in the world but also an integral part of the Swedish power system, is heavily dependent on the amount of available water and thus the precipitation. Historically, the yearly hydropower electricity production has varied from about 50 to 80 TWh, depending on the available water. With a changing climate, these numbers are likely to change, which in turn will have an impact on the hydropower operation. In order to investigate how a changing climate and inflows can affect the hydropower operation, mathematical models are needed.
KTH has created a detailed deterministic linear optimization model, including the 250 largest hydropower stations in Sweden, used for production planning of hydropower. However, when analyzing future scenarios for larger power systems, it is common to use some form of aggregated hydropower stations. So-called Equivalent hydropower models represent an optimal aggregation of the detailed hydropower stations. Typically, the power system model then includes one such Equivalent hydropower station per area – e.g. electricity-trading area. The problem of computing the Equivalent hydropower stations can be formulated as an optimization problem where one of the constraints is another optimization problem. This is also called a bilevel optimization problem. KTH has created a framework for computing such Equivalent hydropower models based on the ‘KTH detailed model’.
Thus, the goal of this thesis is to compute suitable hydropower Equivalent stations, which can be used to investigate the operation in a future affected by climate change. The idea is to compute Equivalent stations for all four electricity-trading areas in Sweden, then study some future inflow scenarios to analyze how the operation is affected. Moreover, different set-ups for the Equivalent model formulation should be investigated – e.g. should there be more than one Equivalent station?
Moreover, the thesis will be performed within a larger research project “The impact of climate change on hydropower production and balancing capabilities”, which is a collaboration between KTH, Chalmers University of Technology, Profu, SMHI, and Energiforsk. The student/students will be working at KTH.
A suitable background for this project includes Energy Systems, Electrical Engineering, and Engineering Physics. A strong interest in and knowledge of applied mathematics are essential.
Prerequisites:
- Good knowledge in optimization and mathematical programming
- Applied Linear and/or Nonlinear Optimization: SF2812, SF2822 or equivalent courses
- Good knowledge of programming (Julia and/or Matlab, GAMS, Python)
Meritorious:
- Power Generation Operation and Planning from KTH or equivalent courses
Starting Date: As soon as possible
Send an email describing why you are interested in this master thesis and include your CV and a copy of your grades. We would like to receive your application by 24/09-2021 at the latest.
Contact:
- Evelin Blom: evelinb@kth.se
- Lennart Söder: lsod@kth.se
